College Football: Week 5 Pick 'Em PreviewBy Will Harris College Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every week to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Tuesdays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews.
USC at Washington (10 points)
Washington is consistently moving the chains behind mobile quarterback Jake Locker, but the Trojans are almost impossible to run on. The Huskies don't profile as a team that can score much in this matchup, lacking the vertical passing game to threaten USC deep. The Trojans primarily have been a running team this year, but this week they'll get to show off their balance against a weak Husky secondary. Tyrone Willingham's squad is better than last year's edition, but as the Huskies showed at home against Ohio State, they aren't ready to play with a top team for 60 minutes. USC, 34-10.
Texas versus Kansas State (9 points)
The Longhorns are seeking revenge for last year's upset in Manhattan, but they had better stay focused with Oklahoma on deck. The Texas offense finally broke out last week against Rice, but it still has to prove itself in conference play after struggling early this year. Kansas State is a bit of a mystery, because the Wildcats haven't played much of a schedule so far, but the team has been dominant against the run and has displayed solid offensive balance. The Cats won't sneak up on Texas this year, though, and while Texas still has too many offensive line issues to roll up the K-State defense, the Horns have too many playmakers to fall prey to the league's middle-tier teams. Texas, 35-21.
South Carolina versus Mississippi State (8 points)
The Bulldogs already have matched last year's SEC win total and hope to catch the Gamecocks reeling after a tough game in Baton Rouge. South Carolina, however, has its eyes on an SEC East title and will be properly focused for this league tilt. That might not be enough to ensure an impressive win, however. Steve Spurrier's offense is struggling, and the Ol' Ball Coach already is changing quarterbacks. Freshman Chris Smelley, who played in the first two games last season before redshirting, will take the reins in an attempt to jump-start Spurrier's Fun 'n' Gun. Mississippi State has been very solid defensively so far, although LSU was the team's only offensively capable opponent. State will try to pound the ball against a South Carolina defense that's allowing nearly five yards per carry, but the Dogs lack the offensive balance to outscore the Gamecocks in what should be a mostly defensive struggle. South Carolina, 21-10.
Oregon versus California (7 points)
California won this one going away last year, but this year it's the Ducks who are sporting the nation's best offense, despite losing respected coordinator Gary Crowton to LSU. These two unbeatens should put on a great offensive show in Autzen Stadium, but as many playmakers as Cal has, it still is doubtful the Bears will be able to outscore an Oregon offense that is executing as well as anyone right now. Cal's already-suspect defense is banged up, and as well as the Bears move the ball, this team simply will not be able to stop the Ducks. Expect a four-hour affair with speedy mustard-and-relish-packet-like unis zooming up and down the field. Oregon has pointed to this game all year, and in the end, the Ducks will have too much intensity and too much firepower. Oregon, 45-31.
Wisconsin versus Michigan State (6 points)
Michigan State's defense has excelled statistically, but it's hard to imagine a slate of opposing offenses that are struggling more than the ones the Spartans have faced. The run defense was dominant in wins over UAB and Bowling Green, but the Spartans gave up way too much ground to Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, especially considering the fact that those teams' hapless passing games render them completely one-dimensional. A date with Wisconsin and bruising back P.J. Hill will expose a Spartans run defense that isn't as good as it's looked so far. Michigan State's offense should do better than the 228 total yards Iowa gained against the Badgers, but the visitor is outmanned in the trenches here and doesn't have the passing game to play catch-up if it gets behind. Wisconsin, 34-17.
Virginia versus Pittsburgh (5 points)
Both teams have been offensively miserable so far, but last week provided a glimmer of hope in both Steel City and Charlottesville. Pitt freshman Pat Bostick took over for an ineffective Kevan Smith against Connecticut, and while three interceptions prevented the Panthers from making a comeback bid, Bostick at least showed the ability to move the chains and vertically stretch the defense. Virginia quarterback Jameel Sewell didn't get off to a very good start in 2007, either, but he had his best game last week against Georgia Tech, and the running game showed signs of life as well. It's doubtful that Virginia's offense can put this one out of reach early, but the Cavs certainly are in better form at the moment. Bostick will have to really exceed expectations on the road in only his second game for the Panthers to come out on top in what should be a defensive slugfest. Virginia, 24-17.
Georgia Tech versus Clemson (4 points)
Tech has the main ingredient required to beat Clemson: a strong run defense. The problem is that this year's Tigers are showing more and more in the passing game every week. Outstanding offensive coordinator Rob Spence and junior signal-caller Cullen Harper are on the same page, and the Tigers' offense really is starting to click. The Yellow Jackets, however, are starting to show some balance as well. Quarterback Taylor Bennett had his best passing day of the season last week against a tough Virginia defense. These are similar teams, and while Clemson currently is in better form and has more positive momentum, it's the Jackets who find themselves at home in a must-win situation. Star tailback Tashard Choice may return to give the host a big boost. Tech will come out strong and lead early, then hold on as this game goes down to the wire. Georgia Tech, 31-27.
Alabama at Florida State (3 points)
There will be a bowl-game atmosphere for this "neutral site" clash in Jacksonville, and both teams should be ready to play well. Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher -- a former Nick Saban assistant promised to shake up things during the Seminoles' bye week, and the offense reportedly has been practicing better. Alabama does not get any pass rush with its front line, so one of the keys for the Tide will be pressuring mistake-prone quarterback Drew Weatherford. The Seminoles have practiced extensively on picking up blitzes, but it still will be tough sledding against a quality Alabama secondary. The Tide defense is most vulnerable to power running teams, and the Seminoles don't fit that description, but steady defense and a few big plays from the talented wide receivers should keep Florida State in the game until the end. Expect a close game with good execution on both sides, but Alabama has too much offensive balance for Florida State's pedestrian attack to keep pace. Alabama, 27-20.
Penn State at Illinois (2 points)
As expected, the Illini have been much improved this season. Now Ron Zook's team gets its first big conference test, against a Penn State team that Illinois outplayed last year. If the Lions still are reeling from losing the big game in the Big House, the resurgent Illini easily could pull the mild upset here. Illinois is on a huge roll and knows it can play with this Penn State team. Illinois also is one of the nation's best rushing teams, a critical strength against a Penn State defense that is very strong overall but only vulnerable along the line. The Illini defensive line also has the strength and speed to get to maligned Lions quarterback Anthony Morelli. The only problem for Illinois is game-coaching, and that's the area in which Joe Paterno's staff has the host overmatched. Expect Illinois to lead at halftime, but look for the Lions to rally late to eke out a victory. Penn State, 24-23.
Navy versus Air Force (1 point)
Neither of these clubs is as good as previous editions, but both place an emphasis on this contest and will be well prepared. This year's Navy defense can't stop anyone, even Air Force's struggling offense. The Falcons' biggest advantage might lie in the experience of senior quarterback Shaun Carney. Navy has struggled with its team leadership this season, but the team has a lot of momentum after rallying to defeat Duke last week. The Mids will need every ounce of that momentum to stay on top of a hungry Air Force squad that has dropped four straight in this series, all close games. This looks like a toss-up, but I'll give the nod to the better-coached Mids at home. Navy, 33-31. |
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